A study suggests that boulders propelled from NASA's DART mission might collide with Mars.

A recent study suggests that NASA's asteroid-deflection mission, DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test), may have inadvertently launched numerous boulders on a potential collision course with Mars.

In 2022, NASA conducted the DART mission, intentionally crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid named Dimorphos to alter its orbit, along with the trajectory of its larger counterpart, Didymos. The objective was to test methods for diverting potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroids, akin to those responsible for the extinction of nonavian dinosaurs.

Initial assessments deemed DART a remarkable success; it successfully shifted Dimorphos' orbit by 32 minutes and altered its shape significantly. However, an unforeseen outcome emerged: the collision propelled a swarm of 37 boulders, some measuring up to 22 feet (6.7 meters), into space. Andy Rivkin, an astronomer at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and a member of the DART team, expressed surprise at the quantity and size of the dislodged boulders, as reported by National Geographic.

Fortunately, none of these boulders appear to pose a threat to Earth. Nevertheless, researchers were intrigued about their potential destinations. A preprint paper, authored by Marco Fenucci, a mathematician at the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre, and his team, investigates the trajectory of these boulders. By simulating their positions over the next 20,000 years, Fenucci's study suggests that Mars could be their eventual destination, with most scenarios indicating a crossing of Mars' orbit in approximately 6,000 years.

The study underscores the significance of considering the composition of these boulders, as their impact on Mars' surface hinges on their stability. While structurally unstable boulders may disintegrate in the thin Martian atmosphere, solid ones could leave substantial impact craters. Moreover, the study emphasizes the importance of understanding the potential for similar missions to introduce debris into space. Given that many asteroids targeted for deflection missions are likely to be "rubble pile" asteroids, scientists must predict the quantity and trajectory of such debris before launching planetary defense missions closer to Earth.

Marco Fenucci emphasized the hypothetical nature of this problem at present, noting that astronomers have identified over 33,000 near-Earth asteroids, none of which pose a risk of impact for at least the next century.